My peer-reviewed research uses computational methods to model organizational processes, focusing on developing techniques to produce data on abstract or hard-to-capture concepts. My research develops methods to measure subtle processes, such as change and gridlock. Recently, I have been working on methods to evaluate triangulated and indirect measurement when ground truth validation benchmarks are unavailable.
My work, and work that I have contributed to, has been published in journals such as American Political Science Review, International Studies Quarterly, Political Science Research and Methods, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, and Third World Quarterly.
Selected Publications
Growth Trap: Grassroots-Driven Transformation of Militant Organizations. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. 2026. Recruitment windfalls can strengthen militant organizations while redirecting their strategy and tactics. This article develops the growth trap mechanism, a grassroots-driven process in which incomplete socialization and delegation embed new recruits’ preferences into organizational behavior. These upward pressures can transform a group’s strategic priorities and operational focus. Drawing on qualitative documents, event data, and computational text analysis, I trace the evolution of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (2009–2016) to illustrate this dynamic. The growth trap highlights how organizational expansion can sow the seeds of transformation—a paradox that illuminates both militant evolution and the life cycle of opaque, high-risk institutions.
Gig Economy Insurgency. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism. 2024. The codebook is available here. Summary: Gig Economy Insurgency presents evidence that militant groups have also adopted a “gig economy” model of human resources in which groups delegate operations to a contingent, short-term, and freelance labor force. This engagement pattern has substantial implications for the trajectory of a conflict, as using temporary and ad-hoc fighters changes incentive and control structures throughout the conflict ecosystem. Using primary sources and secondary reporting on the conflict labor markets in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, I introduce a typology of informal employment patterns in militant groups. This typology provides a basis for a systematic comparison of the implications and consequences of diverse militant employment structures.
Subject to Change: Quantifying Transformation in Armed Conflict Actors. Political Science Research and Methods. Accepted May 2024 . August 2023 version available here; technical Appendix available here, official replication materials here. Github page and interactive summary dashboard here.
Summary: Subject to Change observes that scholars of conflict face a measurement dilemma in how to conceptualize and capture dynamism and evolution in armed conflict actors. I introduce a measurement strategy, evaluate the face validity, and demonstrate scalability to a corpus of 258 militant groups with more than ten violent events from 1989-2020. The study concludes by extending a recent analysis of the impacts of uncertainty on conflict termination. Measurement that Matches Theory: Theory-Driven Identification in IRT Models. (With Marco Morruci, Kaitlyn Webster, So Jin Lee, David A. Siegel). American Political Science Review. 2024 (Accepted March 25).[Arxiv Link]
Summary: Measurement that Matches Theory proposes, details, and validates a semi-supervised approach employing Bayesian Item Response Theory on multiple latent dimensions and binary data. Our approach, which we validate on simulated and real data, yields conceptually meaningful latent dimensions that are reliable across different data sources without additional exogenous assumptions.
Summary: Rhetorical Frames examines the strategy of rhetorical framing: the use of particular words or terms to characterize an issue and imply appropriate policy actions in line with that characterization. We expect rhetorical framing to be particularly important for “the weak” because it can be wielded defensively, is accessible even by very weak states, and is compatible with other strategies. To probe these expectations, we analyze negotiation transcripts from the World Trade Organization (WTO). Based on over 5,000 observations between 1995 and 2020, we confirm that rhetorical framing is 1) used to counter the strong, 2) used even by very weak states, and 3) used in conjunction with other strategies. Taking Dyads Seriously: A Latent Network Approach for Global Politics With Shahryar Minhas, Cassy Dorff, Max Gallop, Juan Tellez, Howard Liu, and Michael Ward. 2021. Political Science Research and Methods.
Summary: Taking Dyads Seriously demonstrates that the Additive and Multiplicative Effects (AME) model, a regression-based approach to network-data, can be used to account for the inherent dependencies in dyadic data and glean substantive insights in the interrelations between actors. It illustrates the measurement improvement via a simulation study and replication of three canonical modern international relations studies.
Summary: Pinks Slips addresses a theoretical puzzle at the top of terrorist organizations: commanders that act off-message are often executed. However, sometimes they are rebuked, dismissed, or repudiated. We use this insight to model how internal and external leverage can limit a leader's ability cut ties with a wayward subordinate. In the process, we highlight how constituency relationships can serve as a tool for counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency policymakers.
In Progress / Under Review
Working Papers and Under Peer Review Developing Gridlock: Frames of Contestation at the World Trade Organization. With Tana Johnson and Maurits van der Veen. Working Paper. [July 2022 working paper available here] Although international inter-governmental organizations (IGOs) are frequently characterized as "gridlocked," the meaning, variation, and drivers of gridlock remain under-theorized. Building on the concept of rhetorical contestation and the impact of exogenous shocks, we offer a new theoretical framework to define and explain gridlock in the World Trade Organization. In developing the theoretical expectation that "gridlock" emerges from competing ways to rhetorically frame the WTO's purpose. We test our predictions via network and computational text analyses on an original dataset of transcripts from Committee on Trade and Development (CTD) meetings from 1995-2020.
Selected Projects in Development
Domino Effect: When Do Recruit Social Networks Exacerbate Fragmentation? In Progress. Previous research presentations accessible here. Phase One: Is it more difficult for militant groups to socialize recruits that have preexisting social connections? However, the empirical and theoretical literature suggests divergent possible downstream consequences of this recruitment style. To adjudicate between the countervailing expectations, I develop an original computational simulation of network-based individual affiliation, socialization, and exit from an issue-motivated organization. I use this simulation to identify when organizations are most and least susceptible to fragmentation and cohesion along network ties. [Completed.] Phase Two: I evaluate the implications of the simulation for group fragmentation and cohesion. [In progress, 2022.]