I am currently a Postdoctoral Researcher at Duke University. Previously, I was a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University in May 2020, with primary fields in Security, Peace, and Conflict and quantitative methods. Before starting my academic career, I tracked and analyzed jihadi and far-right propaganda as a senior analyst at the SITE Intelligence Group. The analysis I produced there was widely cited by both media organizations and policymakers. This experience has shaped my approach to developing a theoretically-driven research agenda that is strongly informed by primary sources, tested quantitatively, and which builds from a variety of sources of data.
My research agenda focuses on adapting computational and analytical tools to answer questions about difficult-to-observe settings. These questions are central to understanding and quantifying geopolitical political risk, and are broadly transferable to other contexts where it is important to understand hidden processes.
Methodologically, I explore creative ways to apply the toolkit of data science to important substantive questions. Along with colleagues at Duke University and elsewhere, I have a line of research on the development and application of a novel Item Response Theory model that produces underlying dimensions that can be directly interpreted. A second major line of research uses machine learning to create new variables to evaluate emerging issue areas and those that have historically been difficult to work with systematically.
Substantively, I focus on the causes and consequences of apparent pathologies that arise among organizations facing survival threats and resource scarcity. In these contexts, organizations exchange long-term best practices for short-term survival.
Subject to Change: Quantifying Transformation in Armed Conflict Actors. Conditionally accepted as a Research Note, Political Science Research and Methods [August 2023 version available here; Technical Appendix available here]
Despite the growing availability of micro-level data and the increasing sophistication of methodological and computational tools, scholars of conflict have several pervasive measurement dilemmas. One of these problems is how to conceptualize and capture dynamism and evolution in armed conflict actors. I introduce a measurement strategy, evaluate the face validity, and demonstrate scalability to a corpus of 258 militant groups with more than ten violent events from 1989-2020. The study concludes by extending a recent analysis of the impacts of uncertainty on conflict termination.
Gig Economy Insurgency Conditionally Accepted, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism November 2023 version available here The codebook is available here
There is substantial evidence that militant groups have also adopted a “gig economy” model of human resources in which groups delegate operations to a contingent, short-term, and freelance labor force. This engagement pattern has substantial implications for the trajectory of a conflict, as using temporary and ad-hoc fighters changes incentive and control structures throughout the conflict ecosystem. Using primary sources and secondary reporting on the conflict labor markets in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, I introduce a typology of informal employment patterns in militant groups. This typology provides a basis for a systematic comparison of the implications and consequences of diverse militant employment structures.
Measurement that Matches Theory: Theory-Driven Identification in IRT Models. With Marco Morruci, Kaitlyn Webster, So Jin Lee, David A. Siegel. Conditionally Accepted at American Political Science Review.[Arxiv Link] We propose, detail, and validate a semi-supervised approach employing Bayesian Item Response Theory on multiple latent dimensions and binary data. Our approach, which we validate on simulated and real data, yields conceptually meaningful latent dimensions that are reliable across different data sources without additional exogenous assumptions.
Growth Trap: Grassroots-Driven Transformation of Militant Organizations Working Paper. [February 2024 working paper available here] When and how do recruitment windfalls strengthen militant organizations while redirecting their strategy and tactics? Drawing on the literature on militant socialization and management, I propose a mechanism of grassroots-driven organizational change that is broadly applicable when leaders balance short-term survival with long-term mission focus. I argue that a growth trap dynamic occurs when upward-driving internal pressures caused by incomplete socialization become codified into group operation through delegation and decentralization. In combination, these can transform the revealed strategic priorities and operational focus of militant organizations. Using qualitative documents, event data, and computational methods, I illustrate the insight via a case study of the evolution of al-Qaeda in Yemen from 2009 through 2016. I outline how recruitment shocks and a changing social context can change the self-presentation of even a group with a significant investment in an ideological identity.
Developing Gridlock: Frames of Contestation at the World Trade Organization. With Tana Johnson and Maurits van der Veen. Working Paper. [July 2022 working paper available here] Although international inter-governmental organizations (IGOs) are frequently characterized as "gridlocked," the meaning, variation, and drivers of gridlock remain under-theorized. Building on the concept of rhetorical contestation and the impact of exogenous shocks, we offer a new theoretical framework to define and explain gridlock in the World Trade Organization. In developing the theoretical expectation that "gridlock" emerges from competing ways to rhetorically frame the WTO's purpose. We test our predictions via network and computational text analyses on an original dataset of transcripts from Committee on Trade and Development (CTD) meetings from 1995-2020.
Selected Projects in Development
Domino Effect: When Do Recruit Social Networks Exacerbate Fragmentation? In Progress. Previous research presentations accessible here. Phase One: Is it more difficult for militant groups to socialize recruits that have preexisting social connections? However, the empirical and theoretical literature suggests divergent possible downstream consequences of this recruitment style. To adjudicate between the countervailing expectations, I develop an original computational simulation of network-based individual affiliation, socialization, and exit from an issue-motivated organization. I use this simulation to identify when organizations are most and least susceptible to fragmentation and cohesion along network ties. [Completed.] Phase Two: I evaluate the implications of the simulation for group fragmentation and cohesion. [In progress, 2022.]
Voices of the Weak: Rhetorical Framing as a Strategy in International Organizations With Tana Johnson Contact for working paper. We examine the strategy of rhetorical framing: the use of particular words or terms to characterize an issue and imply appropriate policy actions in line with that characterization. We expect rhetorical framing to be particularly important for “the weak” because it can be wielded defensively, is accessible even by very weak states, and is compatible with other strategies. To probe these expectations, we analyze negotiation transcripts from the World Trade Organization (WTO). Based on over 5,000 observations between 1995 and 2020, we confirm that rhetorical framing is 1) used to counter the strong, 2) used even by very weak states, and 3) used in conjunction with other strategies.